How much wind power does Germany need?However, all changes to the parameters in the simulation cannot bring about one thing: a significant cost advantage for wind energy to make it indispensable.In 2021, I simulated Germany with 1,400 GW of photovoltaics, 4,000 GWh of batteries, 180 GW of power to methane, 50 km³ of methane storage and 80 GW of combined cycle power plants. The result: with 900 TWh of net electricity consumption, Germany can be supplied purely by solar power, with only 240 GWh of methane imports required. May 2024 I wrote the simulation software for off-grid fast-charging settlements. In the simulation, there were continuous loads from 80 kW to 400 kW, almost 2 MW of photovoltaics and different amounts of sodium batteries, iron-air batteries and power to methanol were simulated. The results were then evaluated with 5, 10, 15, 20 years depreciation and 10, 15, 20, 25 cents per kWh calorific value of methanol.
For small decentralized systems, 50% efficiency was assumed for power to methanol and 35% for the generator. As long as you are close to the equator and the difference between summer and winter is not dramatic, no problem. The situation is completely different if the yield difference between June and December is 5:1 or even greater. In this case, centralized large-scale technology with high efficiency, a lower price per kW and the necessary power grid are required. To simulate this, power to hydrogen was assumed to be 70% efficient and combined cycle power plants 50% efficient. Why only 50%, as Siemens has announced 64%? The difference between heating value (LHV) and calorific value (HHV) comes into play again and the loss in the power grid must also be taken into account.
It is very difficult to obtain hourly wind power data in parallel with the solar data. Wind power was therefore assumed to be a constant source of electricity with seasonal fluctuations. Average yield times 1.2 in December and January, times 0.8 in June and July. The first surprise was the price of a 5 MW wind turbine: Google said €3.2 million purchase price and €5.2 million maintenance costs over 20 years. In the simulation, 2% maintenance costs per year from the purchase price included in my simulation. But here it is 8%. Let's imagine a 32,000 € car with 2,600 € service costs per year. A car is usually sold when the service costs get that high. Then it ends up mainly in Africa, where the mechanic works for €5 per hour. But what happens if Africans prefer to buy new Chinese electric cars? The simulation was then carried out with 0, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 percent wind power in relation to the installed photovoltaics. The most relevant scenario here is 20 years depreciation and 10 cents/kWh for hydrogen. The load is calculated to be evenly distributed over the year, resulting in an annual consumption of 900 TWh. Wind power was calculated at 2/3 of the costs specified by Google for a 5 MW system. The other costs were assumed with prices excluding customs duties, taxes and transportation, which is why only 2/3 are assumed for wind power. As the software is only designed for the calculation of one location and Germany extends over almost 7 degrees of latitude, the data from Koblenz was used for the calculation, which is roughly in the middle.
The simulation was calculated with the 2 MW photovoltaic fast-charging settlements. Different loads are calculated in 20 kW increments. If the optimum was 120 kW continuous load, 850,000 such settlements were simply calculated. If the optimum was 140 kW, 730,000 of these settlements were simply calculated. Now that the relevant areas have been determined, 10 kW or even 5 kW increments could be calculated. Wind power could also be assumed at a lower price. Conversely, one could also adopt the “land for energy” model: cheap land, solar power as a lease price. Changes can also occur if wind power is not calculated as a monthly average, but with hourly yields. However, all changes to the parameters cannot bring about one thing: a significant cost advantage for wind energy to make it indispensable.
The Intersolar trade fair is taking place in Munich from June 19 to 21. I will be there for 3 days to find out about feeding electricity directly from the battery into the medium-voltage grid. The connection fees per kW are cheaper, so you can have almost twice as much kW at the same cost. This is an opportunity for personal meetings with me.
Net zero emissions means reducing greenhouse gas emissions to a level that nature can absorb. For the rich, this means Maintain poverty, cause poverty, so that enough emission rights remain for the rich.
Planetary cleanup back to 350 ppm CO2 means around 47,000 TWh of electricity to filter 1 ppm CO2 from the atmosphere and recycle it into carbon and oxygen. Who can afford that? Only a rich humanity, 10 billion people in prosperity can do it.
It is a decision between 3 directions:
It's not about whether the shares will be worth 10 times or 100 times more in 20 years' time or whether they will only be worth a few cents. It's about the future of us all. Will there be a big showdown between eco-fascism and yesterday's fossils, or will it be possible to overcome the deep divisions in society and inspire supporters of both sides to work towards a great new goal? Global prosperity and planetary restoration instead of saving, restricting, renouncing and climate catastrophe or peak oil and a little more climate catastrophe. Both sides must be convinced that there is no solution that is even remotely viable. On the one hand, it must be shown that net-zero emissions are a completely inadequate target and that the goal must instead be a planetary clean-up back to 350 ppm CO2. The other side must be shown that solar power enables a higher standard of living than fossil energy. It's about survival! The social situation in 2024 compared to 2004. Extrapolating that to 2044 makes for a horror world! If we are successful and your shares are worth 100 times more, this is just an addition to all the other achievements. One new shareholder said "I with my very modest investment”, but €4,000 times €1,000 is also €4 million for all investments up to the opening of the settlement in Unken as a starting point for global expansion. There is a reward program for recommending the share to others. Two of the new shareholders have become shareholders through this reward program. Here are the details.
My studies on off-grid fast-charging settlements have already resulted in initial contact and a video conference with the CEO of a major African company. The most important statements: “There are about 2 million homes missing” and “Solar-powered cement factories are a fascinating new idea”. There are several chances of an event that could lead to a jump in the share price. At today's share price, € 2 million would be 10,000 packages at € 200 and 300,000 shares for the buyer. However, if these € 2 million should be only worth 20% of the AG, this would logically result in a very significant jump in the share price. |
