The illusion of e-fuels for cars and trucksWith the illusion of purchasing e-fuels at cost price and the illusion that batteries will no longer become cheaper, some still believe in e-fuels in road traffic.
We will certainly need e-fuel, but as battery technology advances, its use will be limited to fewer and fewer options. In fact, the only thing left for 2060 will be long-haul aircraft. All other applications for fossil energy and e-fuels in mobility and transportation will be taken over by batteries.
The simplest hydrocarbon is methane CH4. Even here the proportion of carbon by weight is 75%. With ethane C2H6 it is already 80% carbon, with propane C3H8 81.8%. With longer and longer carbon chains, where the number of hydrogen atoms is 2 * carbon atoms 2, this approaches the limit value of 85.7% carbon by weight. Let's take 49 kWh of electricity for the electrolysis of 1 kg of hydrogen, 11.4 kWh of electricity for the splitting of CO2 to produce 1 kg of carbon and 5.8 kWh of electricity procurement costs to filter the CO2 required for 1 kg of carbon from the atmosphere. The production of 1 kg of hydrocarbon with 84.7% carbon would therefore require 22 kWh of electricity.
Saudi Arabia has oil production costs of around US$ 10 per barrel. Nevertheless, it is sold at world market prices. The hours of sunshine in Saudi Arabia would be ideal for the production of e-fuels. But where did anyone get the idea that e-fuels could be bought at production costs? The US fracking companies probably have the highest production costs. Time and again there have been the most fantastic share prospectuses for new fracking companies, but the advertised shares were worth almost nothing after a few years because the production costs and sales price did not allow these companies to survive. Even if the production costs of e-fuels could be quite low in very sunny countries, how does one get the idea of being able to buy at production costs? In 1953, Iran wanted higher oil prices. That is why the Western-trained, Western-oriented, democratically elected president was simply ousted in Operation AJAX. Iran, destabilized by the coup, came under the rule of religious fundamentalists in 1979 and the entire region was destabilized. Do we want to repeat this history with the production of e-fuels? Saudi Arabia does not sell oil at a cost price of US$ 10, but at the current world market price of US$ 70.
Battery prices are falling. If I have been following the development of iron-air batteries for stationary electricity storage for years, it could happen that they have no chance on the market due to very cheap sodium batteries. The currently assumed characteristics of the iron-air battery are 10 €/kWh, 70% efficiency and C=0.01 charging and discharging current. If sodium batteries reach 20 €/kWh, things will look bad for the iron-air battery due to its poorer efficiency. What do 600 kWh batteries for a truck cost? At €40/kWh, only €24,000 in a few years. The large diesel trucks cost money, so the point is very quickly reached where the battery plus electric motor is cheaper than the diesel engine plus transmission. Local batteries at fast charging stations reduce grid costs. 2 trucks have to charge simultaneously with 1 MW, 2 MW grid connection plus power supply fees are expensive. But if 4 MWh batteries only cost €160,000 in a few years' time, you might be able to get by with a 500 kW power connection. This could draw 12 MWh over 24 hours. With the illusion of purchasing e-fuels at cost price and the illusion that batteries will no longer become cheaper, some still believe in e-fuels in road traffic.
The Chinese market is currently being lost to the German automotive industry. This means that high-priced German jobs can no longer be cross-subsidized with profits from China. The most important thing for the survival of the German car industry now would be a strong domestic market for electric cars. But a look at social media shows the mood: eternal oaths of loyalty to the diesel engine, if there is no more diesel, we will just drive with synthetic diesel, hatred of the electric car. The big German car manufacturers have no chance of survival.
Net zero emissions means reducing greenhouse gas emissions to a level that nature can supposedly absorb for a long time. For the rich, this means Maintain poverty, cause poverty, so that enough emission rights remain for the rich. See the architect and her opinion that Africans don't need roads.
Planetary cleanup back to 350 ppm CO2 means around 47,000 TWh of electricity to filter 1 ppm CO2 from the atmosphere and recycle it into carbon and oxygen. Who can afford that? Only a rich human race, 10 billion people in prosperity can do it. One million km² of energy-optimized settlement areas alone should contribute 150,000 TWh for the necessary electricity for world-wide prosperity and planetary restoration.
It's not about whether the shares will be worth 10 times or 100 times more in 20 years' time or whether they will only be worth a few cents. It's about the future of us all. Will there be a big showdown between eco-fascism and yesterday's fossils, or will it be possible to overcome the deep divisions in society and inspire supporters of both sides to work towards a great new goal? Global prosperity and planetary restoration instead of saving, restricting, renouncing and climate catastrophe or peak oil and a little more climate catastrophe. Both sides must be convinced that they have no solution that is even remotely viable. On the one hand, it must be shown that net-zero emissions are a completely inadequate target and that the goal must instead be a planetary clean-up back to 350 ppm CO2. The other side must be shown that solar power enables a higher standard of living than fossil energy. It's about survival! The social situation in 2024 compared to 2004. Extrapolating that to 2044 makes for a horror world! If we are successful and your shares are worth 100 times more, this is just an addition to all the other achievements. One new shareholder said, "Me with my very modest investment", but €4,000 times €1,000 is also €4 million for all investments up to the opening of the settlement in Unken as a starting point for global expansion. There is a reward program for recommending the share to others. Two of the new shareholders have become shareholders through this reward program. Here are the details.
My studies on off-grid fast-charging settlements have already resulted in initial contact and a video conference with the CEO of a major African company. The most important statements: "There are about 2 million homes missing" and "Solar-powered cement factories are a fascinating new idea". Initial negotiations have been held with two financing platforms. There are several chances of an event that could lead to a jump in the share price. At today's share price, € 2 million would be 10,000 packages at € 200 and 300,000 shares for the buyer. However, if these € 2 million are only worth 20% of the AG, this would logically result in a very significant jump in the share price. |
